Why each spherical of 16 workforce will, will not win Membership World Cup

Borussia Dortmund

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +2200 (equal to 4.3%) | Title odds, per Opta: 5.3%
How they received right here: tied Fluminense (0-0), def. Mamelodi Sundowns (4-3), def. Ulsan HD (1-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Monterrey (July 1, 9 p.m. ET, Atlanta)

Why they may win all of it: They’re taking part in their manner into kind. After Niko Kovac took over in February, BVB had been principally the second-best workforce within the Bundesliga, tilting the pitch nicely, executing a excessive line of defense and proving able to both counterattacking or producing hazard from buildup play. Within the U.S. although, they truthfully have not actually executed any of these issues. They have been passive defensively and have barely even tried to counterattack (their 8.7 per recreation rank twenty seventh out of 32 groups). Plus Serhou Guirassy, one of many streakiest finishers within the recreation, is not ending nicely, with one aim from photographs value 2.2 xG.

After all, additionally they went undefeated and gained their group. And after a dreadful attacking efficiency within the opener towards Fluminense, they scored 4 objectives and generated 5.1 xG of their final two video games. New addition Jobe Bellingham (one aim, one help) is already a difference-maker in and across the field. The protection suffered breakdowns towards Mamelodi Sundowns however held the fort nicely within the different two video games, and their efficiency towards Ulsan HD produced a +3.1 xG differential — they utterly dominated, even when the ultimate rating was nearer than it ought to have been. It appears as in the event that they’re rising into the competitors.

Why they will not: They have fairly a little bit of rising to do. Guirassy certainly is not ending, the defensive breakdowns towards Mamelodi had been all-caps ALARMING, and Kovac wasn’t capable of relaxation guys as a lot as he wished in two video games in oppressive noon warmth. They’ve produced the outcomes they wanted, and Bellingham actually has been thrilling, however we’re nonetheless ready for this workforce to look the a part of a challenger.

Botafogo

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +3300 (equal to 2.9%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.5%
How they received right here: def. Seattle Sounders (2-1), def. PSG (1-0), misplaced to Atletico Madrid (0-1)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Palmeiras (June 28, midday ET, Philadelphia)

Why they may win all of it: They sacrifice their our bodies. Botafogo’s highway to the spherical of 16 was laborious. They tried 23 photographs to opponents’ 62. They possessed the ball simply 34.8% of the time — nobody else below 35% has averaged even 1.0 factors per recreation. However Fogo averaged 2.0 factors per recreation and have become the primary workforce to beat PSG because the Parisiens turned European champions. And so they did it with pure effort.

Botafogo have blocked 36% of opponents’ photographs (fifth most within the competitors), and so they’ve pressured opponents to aim 83% of their photographs with no less than two defenders between shot and aim (eleventh). They tried 12.3 counters per recreation (eleventh), too, scoring the one aim of the match towards PSG from a counter. Their assault is fairly one-dimensional, however Igor Jesus has been scientific: He scored the sport winner in each wins, and from photographs value a mixed 0.2 xG.

They protected that lead towards PSG for 54 minutes with no breakdown, and understanding they might advance so long as they did not lose by three objectives or extra towards Atletico Madrid, they made Atleti work for 87 minutes to attain only one. That is some high-effort, high-degree-of-difficulty stuff.

Why they will not: The god of xG will finally activate you. Their aim differential: +1. Their xG differential: minus-4.2. They’ve allowed simply two objectives from photographs value 6.2 xG. They’re taking part in impressed and intense ball, and it’s a delight to look at, however … you are not going to win 4 extra matches whereas giving opponents so many extra high-quality alternatives.

Chelsea

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +1000 (equal to 9.1%) | Title odds, per Opta: 10.9%
How they received right here: def. LAFC (2-0), misplaced to Flamengo (1-3), def. Esperance (3-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Benfica (June 28, 4 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they may win all of it: Depth and a powerful possession recreation. Supervisor Enzo Maresca is used to coping with a bloated squad and on this match, with its oppressive climate, bloat is an efficient factor. He has already performed 25 completely different guys, with solely proper again Malo Gusto topping 195 minutes (star Cole Palmer has needed to play solely 166). And regardless of the heavy rotation, Chelsea seemed robust for principally 5 of six halves. They wilted late towards Flamengo however responded to qualify simply.

Irrespective of who has been taking part in, Chelsea have checked all the right possession containers: They’re sixth in possession price (63.0%), sixth in passes per possession (9.2), fourth in progressive carries (90.3 per recreation) and fourth in offsides drawn (3.0 per recreation), and all with the third-fewest possessions per recreation (69.0). They’re going to need to beat Benfica with out the suspended Nicolas Jackson, which is not optimum, however this can be a comparatively rested workforce taking part in the kind of ball it needs to play.

Why they will not: Cole Palmer is the unsuitable type of chilly (and the glitches stay alarming). You most likely want your greatest participant to play nicely to win 4 knockout rounds, and Palmer has been an absolute nonfactor in his two appearances to this point. In actual fact, going all the way in which again to Jan. 20, he is performed in 26 matches for membership and nation and has managed only one aim with 5 assists. Two of these assists did come within the Convention League ultimate towards Actual Betis, however he is tried 75 photographs value 7.6 xG on this prolonged span and put only one within the internet. That is 5 steps past “ending funk.”

Add Palmer’s struggles to a protection that glitched out for a bit towards Flamengo (and had a reasonably dangerous behavior of permitting high-quality shot makes an attempt whereas nursing leads within the Premier League), and you do not have probably the most steady of contenders.

Flamengo

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +2200 (equal to 4.3%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
How they received right here: def. Esperance (2-0), def. Chelsea (3-1), drew with LAFC (1-1)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Bayern Munich (June 29, 4 p.m. ET, Miami)

Why they may win all of it: They take all the nice photographs. Earlier than supervisor Filipe Luís flipped their lineup fairly a bit for his or her ultimate match, having already clinched first in Group D, Flamengo allowed one aim in two matches, and it was triggered by a sequence of funky deflections. In the meantime, they tried seven photographs value no less than 0.2 xG and allowed one. It is arduous to lose once you’re taking all the nice photographs.

Brazilian groups have been wonderful on this competitors, and Flamengo are Brazil‘s greatest workforce. They play the sturdy, box-filling protection we have seen from many of the South American groups within the Membership World Cup, however they do not spring ahead into counterattacks — as a substitute, they play sound, affected person possession ball. They hold the tempo ultra-slow, and so they whittle away till they create one thing of top quality.

Leo Pereira leads a fantastic protection, Giorgian de Arrascaeta (9 objectives and 4 assists in 9 Serie A matches) and Gonzalo Plata (two assists versus Chelsea) set off a various assault, and now former Chelsea and Arsenal star midfielder Jorginho is linking the 2 collectively.

Why they will not: A sluggish recreation does not work as nicely if you happen to’re trailing. Granted, they charged again from a 1-0 deficit to wallop Chelsea, but when they’re to make a deep run on this match, they’re solely going to face higher and higher opponents, and so they’ll most likely have to come back from behind once more. That is theoretically so much tougher to do once you play at such a languid tempo and your total recreation relies round persistence. They’ve trailed for less than 48 possessions in league play this season, too — we do not actually understand how good their Plan B is as a result of they’ve by no means needed to present it.

Fluminense

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +4000 (equal to 2.4%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.4%
How they received right here: tied Borussia Dortmund (0-0), def. Ulsan HD (4-2), tied Mamelodi Sundowns (0-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Inter Milan (Monday, 3 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they may win all of it: They defend their butts off. In league play, Flu have not created tons of nice scoring alternatives, however they’ve mixed amount and high quality in protection: They’re fourth in Brazil’s Serie A in photographs allowed per possession, and so they’re third in high-quality photographs allowed (0.2 xG or greater).

To date within the Membership World Cup … they have not created tons of nice scoring alternatives, however they’ve mixed amount and high quality in protection. Borussia Dortmund and Mamelodi Sundowns every scored 4 objectives of their different two group-stage matches, however they mixed for zero objectives and 0.9 xG towards Fluminense. Even at age 40, Thiago Silva can coordinate one hell of a protection within the again.

Fluminense are fifth in go interceptions (10.0 per recreation), they’re sixth in duel successful proportion (54.5%). They’re taking the combat to opponents and successful. And so they’re getting simply sufficient from proper winger Jhon Arias in assault — he has a aim and an help and leads the workforce in probabilities created (eight), anticipated assists from go completions (0.7), photographs (9), touches (228), progressive carries (26), fouls suffered (9) and 1v1 makes an attempt (15) — to tie all of it collectively. Flu aren’t taking part in probably the most thrilling ball on this match, however they don’t seem to be backing down from challenges both.

Why they will not: Scoring is an efficient factor. They solely did it in considered one of three video games. Arias is doing his greatest and 37-year previous German Cano, scorer of 40 objectives simply two seasons in the past, had a beautiful tiebreaking help late towards Ulsan as nicely. But it surely’s actually tough to see this assault doing sufficient to win 4 knockout video games.

Inter Miami

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +6600 (equal to 1.4%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
How they received right here: drew with Al Ahly (0-0), def. Porto (2-1), drew with Palmeiras (2-2)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Paris Saint-Germain (June 29, midday ET, Atlanta)

Why they may win all of it: Messi magic. As of Tuesday, there have been 4 objectives from direct free kicks within the Membership World Cup. That they had a mean pre-shot xG of about 0.07. However Leo Messi’s, from 23 meters out within the second half towards Porto, felt like 1.00. The gang buzzed as Messi was lining it up. Everybody anticipated it to go in, and then it went in.

Per the Opta energy rankings, Inter Miami was the No. 4 workforce in Group A heading into the match, and it appeared {that a} Messi workforce was primed to exit a match within the group stage for the primary time ever. However his free kick teed up an upset of Porto, and his work farther from the aim towards Palmeiras — he made 12 progressive carries, gained 5 of seven one-on-ones and altered the protection’s heart of gravity for 90 minutes. Inter overcame a rampant run of cramping to attract with Palmeiras and advance.

Beating PSG might be an excessive amount of to ask, however all it would take is a few moments of magic from a man nonetheless able to producing them.

Why they will not: OK, high-quality, beating PSG is sort of undoubtedly an excessive amount of to ask. It is going to take the aforementioned magic, plus additional pressure from a protection that has maxed itself out by way of each ability and energy ranges. Opta’s energy rankings give Inter solely a 16.4% likelihood of advancing and even in a recreation based mostly so closely in randomness, that feels extremely optimistic.

Inter Milan

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +1600 (equal to five.9%) | Title odds, per Opta: 15.0%
How they received right here: tied Monterrey (1-1), def. Urawa Crimson Diamonds (2-1), def. River Plate (2-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Fluminense (June 30, 3 p.m. ET, Charlotte)

Why they may win all of it: They’ve numbers on their aspect. At first look, it looks like Inter actually struggled to get a foothold on this competitors. They gave up a aim on Monterrey’s second shot try and settled for a draw, then gave up a aim on Urawa Reds’ first shot and wanted two late scores to prevail. They could not get on high of River Plate till a purple card flipped the stability of the match halfway by means of the second half. Stars akin to Lautaro Martinez, Nicolo Barella and 36-year previous Henrikh Mkhitaryan all needed to put in additional than 210 minutes to ensure Inter superior correctly.

Solely the timing of opponents’ objectives made these matches attention-grabbing, nevertheless; Inter tried photographs value 7.2 xG and allowed photographs value solely 2.3, however that +4.9 xG differential (fourth-best within the competitors) produced solely +3 within the precise objectives division. That might bode nicely for them transferring ahead. Plus, Inter prevented a number of the worst warmth within the match with two night matches and two in Seattle. That might additionally bode nicely.

Why they will not: This does not really feel just like the workforce that reached the Champions League ultimate. Midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu is out, as are defenders Yann Bisseck and Benjamin Pavard. Ahead Marcus Thuram received harm towards Monterrey, and midfielder Davide Frattesi hasn’t seen the pitch but. This can be a banged-up and somewhat experimental squad, with new supervisor Cristian Chivu giving a number of minutes to unproven children like brothers Francesco Pio Esposito and Sebastiano Esposito.

The numbers counsel they have been doing simply high-quality, however this is not Inter Inter.

Juventus

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +2000 (equal to 4.8%) | Title odds, per Opta: 4.1%
How they received right here: def. Al-Ain (5-0), def. Wydad Casablanca (4-1)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Somebody from Group H (both Actual Madrid, RB Salzburg or Al Hilal, location and time TBD)

Why they may win all of it: They’re hustling. Igor Tudor took over as supervisor on March 23 and safely steered Juve to a fourth-place end with only one loss in 9 league matches. They created a forcefield round their defensive field and hustled their butts off, permitting few passes per defensive motion, blocking tons of photographs and taking advantage of the ball recoveries.

Juve are hustling mentioned butts off appropriately within the U.S., too. Even whereas nursing largely snug leads that may theoretically permit them to ease off the throttle, they’re third in passes allowed per defensive motion (8.5) and sixth in ball recoveries per match (44.0). They did permit a aim from a careless breakdown towards Wydad Casablanca, but it surely’s virtually the one breakdown they’ve suffered. In the meantime, the attacking trio of Randal Kolo Muani, Kenan Yildiz and Francisco Conceição (mixed: seven objectives, one help, 10 probabilities created) has been extremely sharp.

Juve seem like taking this competitors very severely.

Why they will not: Hustling is not sufficient towards good groups. In Tudor’s 9 league matches, Juve performed three stable groups (Bologna, Lazio and Roma) and drew 1-1 with all three. Mixed xG differential in these three matches: minus-0.8. In assault, they could not rely on both harmful counters or sturdy buildup play, and so they received pinned in a bit extra defensively. They weren’t dominated by any means, however they did not create many benefits.

Beginning with Thursday’s match towards Manchester Metropolis, the competitors ramps up considerably for Juve. Excessive effort ranges have made them nearly upset-proof, however they don’t seem to be going to be favored in lots of matches transferring ahead.

Manchester Metropolis

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +400 (equal to twenty%) | Title odds, per Opta: 17.1%
How they received right here: def. Wydad Casablanca (2-0), def. Al-Ain (6-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Somebody from Group H (both Actual Madrid, RB Salzburg or Al Hilal)

Why they may win all of it: They’re Manchester Metropolis. Whereas the qualification standards for this competitors was somewhat murky, the final thought is that the groups on this match completed one thing notably noteworthy between 2021-24. Metropolis had been the perfect workforce on this planet for a big proportion of that span. They completed solely third within the Premier League and reached the FA Cup ultimate this 12 months, which by Metropolis requirements was apocalyptic, however each the ceiling and ground stay ridiculously excessive.

In two Membership World Cup matches, Pep Guardiola has performed 25 completely different guys and gotten objectives from seven completely different gamers, and Metropolis are dominating possession, tilting the pitch and doing all of the issues we count on Metropolis to do.

Why they will not: We do not know what we have to know concerning the protection but. Out of 36 Champions League groups this previous season, Metropolis ranked thirty second in photographs allowed per possession (0.15), thirty second in ball recoveries per recreation (37.9) and thirty sixth in duel makes an attempt; the assault was high-quality and hogged the ball in addition to anticipated, however and not using a wholesome Rodri, the again half of the Metropolis lineup was terribly passive.

Three January defensive acquisitions (defensive midfielder Nico Gonzalez, proper again Abdukodir Khusanov and heart again Vitor Reis) and a June acquisition (left again Rayan Aït-Nouri) are among the many many guys who’ve seen the pitch — as is Rodri himself — however Guardiola continues to be experimenting, and the extent of competitors is about to ramp up rapidly. They have not allowed a aim but, however Wydad Casablanca managed 12 shot makes an attempt, and whereas Al-Ain managed solely 5, three had been value no less than 0.1 xG. Outcomes are inconclusive to this point.

Monterrey

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +10000 (equal to 1.0%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.2%
How they received right here: tied Inter Milan (1-1), tied River Plate (0-0), def. Urawa Crimson Diamonds (4-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Borussia Dortmund (Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET)

Why they may win all of it: The excessive line is holding up. Lots of Monterrey’s relative success in Liga MX this season got here from a enjoyable mixture of a excessive line of defense (they drew the second-most offsides) and a willingness to go mano y mano (third-most take-on makes an attempt, most fouls drawn within the attacking third). That system has to this point produced within the U.S. too: They drew 12 offsides calls within the first three matches (most within the Membership World Cup) and suffered 42 fouls (third-most) and have usually prevented opponents from creating any rhythm in any way.

They scored just one aim of their first two matches — and it got here from steely veteran Sergio Ramos, predictably on a nook — however allowed just one in three. Ramos (39) and Stefan Medina (33) have been note-perfect within the again, combining for 90 defensive interventions and a wholesome proportion of the workforce’s progressive passes and carries. The assault lastly contributed towards Urawa Reds, too. This workforce is aware of the way it needs to win video games and has executed nicely to this point.

Why they will not: The numbers finally activate you. As with Botafogo, the Rayados have executed just a little bit higher than the underlying xG figures counsel they need to have. Their attracts towards Inter and River Plate occurred regardless of a mixed xG differential of minus-3.1 (they allowed one aim from photographs value 4.4 xG), and whereas they’re about to play a Borussia Dortmund workforce that hasn’t been ending notably nicely both, counting on errant opposing photographs to win 4 matches in a row is a tall ask.

Palmeiras

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +1800 (equal to five.3%) | Title odds, per Opta: 0.9%
How they received right here: drew with Porto (0-0), def. Al Ahly (2-0), drew with Inter Miami (2-2)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Botafogo (June 28, midday ET, Philadelphia)

Why they may win all of it: They put on opponents down. Winners of 11 trophies within the 2020s, Palmeiras almost took down Chelsea within the 2021 Membership World Cup ultimate. Regardless of sending a great deal of high-level expertise to Europe in that span, no Brazilian workforce feels extra at house on an enormous, pressure-packed stage, and so they confirmed it by successful Group A with a run of second-half brilliance.

This can be a fairly retrograde assault: Palmeiras are third within the competitors in cross makes an attempt (29.0 per match), second in proportion of photographs from headers (28.0%) and fourth in direct assaults (sequences beginning within the defensive half and producing a shot inside 20 seconds). However they’re nonetheless making an attempt extra photographs per possession than anybody not named Bayern (0.22), and so they’re permitting simply 0.09 per possession (eighth). In sticky, sizzling situations, they hold the sport broad open and wait so that you can wilt. It is working.

Why they will not: Shot high quality. Making an attempt virtually 2.5 instances extra photographs than your opponent will usually work out fairly nicely for you, however solely eight of their 50 shot makes an attempt have been value 0.2 xG or extra, and so they’re twentieth within the competitors in xG per shot (0.14). After blowing a few golden alternatives within the opener towards Porto, Chelsea-bound Estevao’s shot high quality has regressed rapidly, and Palmeiras have turned photographs value 5.3 xG into solely three objectives. (They scored a fourth on an personal aim.)

In the event you aren’t taking nice photographs and are not maximizing those you’re taking, you are not successful 4 knockout-round matches.

Paris Saint-Germain

Title odds, per ESPN BET: +275 (equal to 26.7%) | Title odds, per Opta: 20.8%
How they received right here: def. Atletico Madrid (4-0), misplaced to Botafogo (1-0), def. Seattle Sounders (2-0)
Spherical-of-16 opponent: Inter Miami (June 29, midday ET, Atlanta)

Why they may win all of it: They’re the perfect workforce on this planet. They had been positioned in a difficult group, Ballon d’Or contender Ousmane Dembele is nursing a hamstring challenge, and neither Désiré Doué nor Bradley Barcola have completed a lot to this point. And but, this deep and energetic workforce is doing all of the issues a superb Luis Enrique squad is meant to do — 73.4% possession price (first within the competitors), 11.3 passes per possession (first), 104.3 progressive passes per recreation (first) and, on the urgent aspect, simply 6.9 passes allowed per defensive motion (first).

They nonetheless have the perfect fullback duo within the recreation with Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stays a nonstop menace on the left wing, Fabián Ruiz and Vitinha have been virtually flawless in midfield, and 6 completely different gamers have put the ball within the internet. Even with the loss to Botafogo, the perfect workforce on this planet for the final six months has made it to the knockout rounds with minimal stress.

Why they will not: They should dial again in. The blowout win over Atletico Madrid was an announcement of intent to open their match, however their focus has waned since then.

They certainly gave up a counterattacking aim to Botafogo and by no means created a very high-quality alternative within the hour that adopted. And in what turned out to be a must-win match towards Seattle, they had been sluggish out of the gate, permitting a high-quality alternative to Jesús Ferreira within the nineteenth minute and truly dropping the first-half xG battle. They dominated the second half and had been by no means in hassle, however after that fifth-gear displaying they’ve cruised alongside in second, and it may be tough to reestablish your greatest kind as soon as you have misplaced it.