UCL speaking factors: Madrid, PSG or Italian soccer — who’s worse off?

The knockout playoff spherical of UEFA Champions League concluded this week and, forward of Friday’s draw for the final 16, now we have A LOT to speak about.

Seventeen targets and three pink playing cards in 4 video games capped a fully chaotic night time on Wednesday, with Galatasaray edging Juventus in further time, Borussia Dortmund conspiring to surrender a two-goal result in Atalanta, and Benfica giving the Bernabéu a scare earlier than ultimately succumbing to Actual Madrid.

The night prior, Bodø/Glimt‘s fairytale continued with a complete 5-2 combination win over Internazionale, whereas Atlético Madrid and Newcastle United made mild work of Membership Brugge and FK Qarabag, respectively.

ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti break down the motion because it occurred as we look forward to the Spherical of 16.

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– UCL because it occurred: Gala’s extra-time win over Juve caps chaotic day
– Kirkland: Viní Jr. brings star energy, however worries abound for Actual Madrid
– O’Halloran: The key behind Bodø/Glimt’s European success

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Q1. Actual Madrid defeated Jose Mourinho’s Benfica 3-1 on combination, however had been hardly convincing. Is profitable whereas enjoying badly an indication of a champion workforce? Or are Los Blancos going to return undone within the Champions League sooner quite than later?

Marcotti: I really feel like I am repeating myself right here. Actual Madrid CAN win the Champions League (and LaLiga too for that matter) as a result of they’ve a shutdown keeper in Thibaut Courtois and a consummate goal-scorer in Kylian Mbappé. And if you happen to arrange your workforce to principally defend (with Courtois as insurance coverage) whilst you look ahead to one of many entrance two to do one thing particular, it simply would possibly work, as a result of they’re that good. However, no, you will not look convincing doing it. It is exhausting to see how any coach could make this poorly assorted group look convincing (Xabi Alonso might need had a shot, however we all know how that ended), not to mention Alvaro Arbeloa. It is the character of soccer proper now. The highest groups have a lot expertise they do not truly have to “look convincing” to win video games.

Laurens: I disagree with Gab and I hope I’m unsuitable as I would like Mbappé to win the Champions League, however I actually do not imagine this model of Actual Madrid can win the competitors this season with this supervisor and this squad. I’ve not often seen them truly dominating in each facet of a recreation. There may be all the time one thing lacking, and to win the Champions League, even in a median season like this one, you want to have the ability to play with nothing lacking. You will have the perfect keeper on the planet in Courtois, the perfect striker on the planet in Mbappé, and top-of-the-line wingers on the planet in Vinícius Júnior however, collectively, the entire construction is flawed.

Tighe: I’ve seen Actual Madrid play extraordinarily poorly a variety of instances this season, however that usually hasn’t stopped them profitable. As Gab notes, that is the best way of issues when you’ve got elite gamers in key positions. However at no level have I felt like Madrid’s particular person high quality and pure affinity with this event can override the truth that a number of different groups look streets forward of them, and so due to this fact Los Blancos have to be thought of a protracted shot to win all of it.

This newest efficiency — a 2-1 dwelling victory over Benfica — modified nothing. Regardless of the win, Madrid had been horrible. Lackadaisical passing, countless turnovers … they ran it effective. Benfica threatened persistently, scored and hit the bar. Put Arbeloa’s workforce in opposition to a genuinely glorious aspect — one which completed within the prime 4 of the league part — and let’s examine what occurs.

Ogden: I am torn on this one as a result of I believe Madrid’s midfield will allow them to down in opposition to a very prime workforce, however then I do not suppose there’s a actually prime workforce within the competitors this season. Each different huge workforce has flaws that Actual might punish as a result of they’ve deadly forwards in Mbappé, Vinícius and Jude Bellingham who can — health allowing — all the time pop up and rating an enormous aim. And Gab is correct about Courtois. He is the perfect goalkeeper on the planet, so when you’ve got the perfect keeper and the perfect ahead — Mbappé — then in fact you possibly can win it. It is going to all come all the way down to Actual Madrid blowing sizzling or chilly, however worse groups than this one have gained the Champions League.

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Q2. AS Monaco pushed Paris Saint-Germain all the best way of their tie, with Les Parisiens ultimately profitable 5-4 on combination. Do the defending champions have sufficient within the tank to go back-to-back?

Laurens: I’m afraid not and I’m at peace with it. I might have liked my Parisians to go back-to-back however there’s a motive why solely two golf equipment have achieved it for the reason that late 80s, AC Milan and Actual Madrid. It’s bloody exhausting to do. This PSG squad reached their heavenly peak final season with 4 extraordinary months that noticed them beating half of the Premier League and demolishing Inter Milan within the ultimate. All of the planets aligned on the proper time and so they will not undergo this once more, not simply this season however most likely by no means once more interval. For now, they’re nonetheless on this and can face Chelsea or Barcelona within the final 16. It might all cease there, particularly in the event that they play the Catalans. Nevertheless it might additionally final a bit longer with a match Ousmane Dembélé, a match Fabián Ruiz, and Vitinha in higher type (can we even have Gianluigi Donnarumma again please?). However all the best way once more? Not this yr.

Marcotti: PSG have misplaced six video games this season in all competitions. Final yr, regardless of their gradual begin, that they had misplaced three. That stated, 4 of these six losses had been in opposition to French golf equipment, and there are not any left within the competitors. (The opposite two had been in opposition to Bayern Munich and Sporting CP, once they had been very unfortunate). So I am not writing them off. I believe Juls is being unduly exhausting on his workforce. They seem to be a younger aspect, stuffed with vitality and, in comparison with final season, they’ve one other yr’s expertise. On the flipside, they downgraded their keeper (generally I believe Donnarumma on his personal is healthier than Matvey Safonov AND Lucas Chevalier standing within the goalmouth on the similar time). Yeah, repeating is hard, however no motive to write down them off.

Ogden: I used to be in Paris for the second-leg in opposition to Monaco and I used to be struck by how flat PSG had been. The environment within the Parc des Princes was additionally unusually quiet. Perhaps all people is simply worn out by the final 12 months? The psychological toll of getting to defend a title is difficult sufficient, however PSG additionally performed on till mid-July within the Membership World Cup, so it is no shock they appear shot to items. I do not see them beating Barcelona within the subsequent spherical and I reckon it is 50-50 in opposition to Chelsea. A yr in the past, PSG had been like a twister ripping by the competitors, however all of that vitality has gone and there is no means that they’ll win it once more this season.

Tighe: PSG have fallen thus far, it is so disappointing. There are apparent causes for it — harm pile-ups and the lack of a star goalkeeper, as the fellows have talked about — however it maybe additionally proves how exhausting it’s to take care of a exceptional degree for any longer than half a yr. With that in thoughts, I tip my hat to Pep Guardiola, who stored his Barcelona and Manchester Metropolis sides ticking at an absurd charge for a lot, for much longer. It is exhausting to see Les Parisiens vaulting again into the dialog from right here.

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Q3. Bodø/Glimt are the story of the 2025-26 Champions League; making it additional than any Norwegian workforce ever, racking up spectacular wins over Atlético, Man Metropolis and Inter (twice) alongside the best way. How far can this fairytale go? And does their efficiency give hope to these golf equipment exterior Europe’s prime 5 leagues in terms of this competitors?

Ogden: I believe this all relies on Friday’s draw and whether or not Bodø keep away from Manchester Metropolis and face Sporting CP as a substitute. I do know Bodø hammered Metropolis — sure, it was a hammering — once they beat them 3-1 in Norway final month, however I simply can’t see lightning putting twice in opposition to Guardiola’s workforce. Bodø might win once more at dwelling, however Metropolis can have discovered their classes from their journey to the Arctic Circle and, with the second leg on the Etihad, you’ll anticipate the Premier League aspect to win comfortably.

Sporting, although, could be a special matter. Bodø have overwhelmed Metropolis and gained away in opposition to Atlético Madrid and Inter, so the workforce from Portugal won’t maintain any fears for Kjetil Knutsen and his gamers. And sure, each workforce exterior the large leagues can take inspiration from Bodø. For those who’re organised, recruit properly, and have a sensible coach you possibly can beat the highest groups.

Laurens: I agree with Oggy. Give Bodø/Glimt a date with Sporting, and so they’ll be within the quarterfinals. Nevertheless, in the event that they face Guardiola’s aspect, they’ll have their midweeks free once more; Bodø cannot beat Manchester Metropolis over two legs.

Probably the most fascinating factor on this entire Arctic Circle fairytale is that they did not win any of their first six video games within the league part. Then they beat Metropolis and Atlético and miraculously made it into the highest 24. There may be a lot to remove from the Norwegians’ success by way of organisation, tradition, funding and depth.

Marcotti: The factor about Bodø is that they are excessive threat/excessive reward. They need to be, as a result of they’re up in opposition to much better resourced opponents. They play with a ton of vitality, they transfer like clockwork, and so they’re unafraid. That shocks larger groups, which is a part of the explanation they achieve this properly. And mentally, they’re super-strong too: witness how they hadn’t truly gained till the previous couple of rounds of the group stage, however nonetheless confirmed their resilience. Then there’s the plastic pitch, the Arctic Circle and all that jazz, which helps too.

I believe they’ll shock anyone, however equally, they want loads of issues to go their means (like they did within the first leg in opposition to Inter). Let’s simply name them probably the most unpredictable workforce left within the competitors.

Tighe: The most effective factor about this Bodø/Glimt squad is that a lot of their key protagonists are principally misfits — they moved to Europe’s prime leagues, could not reduce it and ended up within the Arctic Circle, rehabbing their profession. Ahead Jens Petter Hauge failed at AC Milan and Eintracht Frankfurt; Patrick Berg made an enormous transfer to Lens, however was despatched again throughout the yr; Kasper Høgh — the man who cannot cease scoring and helping — is on his sixth Scandinavian membership by age 25.

These gamers not solely discover themselves within the good atmosphere, however all of them really feel like they’ve one thing to show to the world. That is a harmful mixture that is aware of no restrict.

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This fall. Juve had been despatched packing by Galatasaray, Inter had been dismantled by Bodø, and Atalanta squeaked previous a Dortmund aspect that clearly has an urge for food for self-destruction. Oh and Napoli did not even make the knockout rounds! With the nationwide workforce staring down the barrel of a playoff to even qualify for the (expanded) World Cup, ought to we be anxious in regards to the state of Italian soccer?

Laurens: Even Gab could be unsuitable generally! Earlier than the beginning of Tuesday’s video games, he instructed us: “Don’t be concerned, Inter and Atalanta will probably be effective…” Sadly if you’re a Nerazzurri fan, you aren’t effective. Atalanta, seventh in Serie A, on their second supervisor of the season and who misplaced their greatest participant, Ademola Lookman, within the January switch window, are saving Italian soccer from complete embarrassment. And it’s not a shock.

We watch Serie A each weekend: it is the league with probably the most 0-0 attracts (by far) this season amongst the large 5 leagues, the league with the least depth (other than Como and, to a lesser diploma, Atalanta) amongst the large 5 leagues, the league the place 40-year-old Luka Modric is without doubt one of the greatest gamers this season. And I might go on, too…

In 2023, Serie A had a finalist in every of the three European competitions. The Italians misplaced all of them and, three years later, even these “successes” really feel like a distant reminiscence.

Tighe: There is no doubt that sure members of Italy’s conventional prime order really feel weak proper now. You solely need to scroll again a handful of years to recollect AC Milan and Inter duelling in a Champions League semifinal! Lower than 10 years in the past, Juventus signed Cristiano Ronaldo for €100 million as they sought to take the ultimate step and win this competitors. However now? A number of conventional Serie An enormous weapons seem to lack that presence at Europe’s prime desk.

That stated, there have to be some room for nuance right here. Knockout tournaments are by nature fairly random, one thing Inter can clearly attest to. They put up 2.29 xG of their 2-1 second-leg loss to Bodø/Glimt after smacking the woodwork a number of instances within the first leg. It is soccer, generally issues go unsuitable. Add that to Napoli’s harm points (and the actual fact they’re managed by Antonio Conte, who habitually struggles in Europe) and it is value contemplating whether or not a few of that is simply … circumstantial.

Ogden: Italian soccer appears to be frozen in time. The nationwide workforce is going through the prospect of lacking a 3rd successive World Cup and, even when they qualify, the dearth of high quality in Gennaro Gattuso’s squad means they’ll do properly to succeed in the knockout levels from there. Former Italy legend Alessandro Del Piero spoke earlier this week a couple of lack of funding in stadia by the highest Italian golf equipment and a expertise drain that has seen the perfect Italian kids enjoying for golf equipment exterior of Italy. He additionally talked about the consolation zone that sees the main golf equipment commerce gamers between themselves quite than look to international markets.

It is wonderful to suppose that, since Inter gained the Champions League in 2010, solely two European trophies have been gained by Italian golf equipment: AS Roma (UEFA Convention League, 2022) and Atalanta (UEFA Europa League, 2024). The highest gamers do not play in Italy anymore and that is in the end why their golf equipment are failing within the Champions League.

Marcotti: OK, I am going to chunk. Juls, a distant reminiscence? Serie A has despatched as many groups to the Champions League ultimate within the final 4 years because the Premier League. Serie A has many issues — one of many greatest is people (like Oggy) evaluating them to the previous when, between 1985 and 2000ish, they routinely acquired the world’s greatest gamers and dominated the sport. The world has modified. European soccer is dominated by the identical 10-12 super-clubs and for quite a lot of causes, and Italy’s huge golf equipment aren’t on a par with the super-clubs in Spain, or Bayern, or PSG. That is primarily what we’re speaking about right here.

Past that, Oggy is correct when he talks about complacency and horrendous management — much less so about stadiums (they may use an improve, certain, however it’s not going to maneuver the needle) and the nationwide workforce (lack of expertise is not the explanation they’re within the playoffs). However let’s even be a little bit nuanced right here.

Inter might have scored 5 within the first leg in opposition to Bodø, and we would not be having this dialog. Nor would we be having it if Florian Wirtz hadn’t taken a dive in harm time, as a result of they’d be in Spherical of 16. Atalanta — sorry guys, I do know you deliberate this query once you thought they had been going out — are seventh in Serie A and knocked out Dortmund, second within the Bundesliga. They usually did it with out their greatest midfielder and two beginning strikers. So perhaps take a chill capsule right here.

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Q5. Now that the playoff spherical is full, which match are you hoping will get drawn in Friday’s final 16?

Marcotti: I actually do not care, however because you’re asking properly, Newcastle United vs. Barcelona could be enjoyable and colourful. And in addition a definite distinction in types (Anthony Gordon in opposition to that prime line … how about that?) Bayern’s Jonathan Tah in opposition to his previous membership, Bayer Leverkusen, could be enjoyable too.

Laurens: me, I’m a blockbuster man. I do not care that a lot about beautiful fairytale tales and about getting as many smaller golf equipment within the later levels of the competitors, so I would like huge video games within the final 16. I would like Atletico vs. Liverpool, Manchester Metropolis vs. Actual Madrid, PSG vs. Chelsea, and Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich.

The remainder, particularly Newcastle vs. Barcelona will probably be nice to observe, like Atalanta vs. Arsenal, however all I ask of UEFA is that we get a ton of huge membership vs. huge membership matches within the subsequent spherical!

Ogden: I am with Juls on this one. It feels prefer it’s taken endlessly to get to the video games that matter on this season’s Champions League, however we’re lastly right here now, so let’s get as many heavyweights slugging it out in opposition to one another as potential.

However one tie that intrigues me is PSG vs. Chelsea/Barcelona as a result of PSG are so troublesome to gauge this season. Will they take revenge on Chelsea for beating them within the Membership World Cup ultimate, or will it’s a resumption of their epic Champions League rivalry with Barça? Both means, PSG have two blockbuster video games developing.

Tighe: My one request to the draw gods is that they go simple on the all-domestic ties. The actually enjoyable a part of the Champions League is watching groups who do not play one another a minimal of twice a yr lock horns, representing their nations’ reputations within the course of.

So, with that in thoughts, Chelsea please keep away from Newcastle, and Bayern please keep away from Leverkusen. And if I am on my greatest behaviour, can I please have PSG vs. Barcelona? It’s going to be a sorry model of what final season’s ultimate ought to have been — however I am going to take all of it the identical.