The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just around the corner, and the excitement is building with every passing day as North America prepares for the biggest tournament in soccer history.
This year’s World Cup will be unlike anything we have ever seen before.
For the first time ever, 48 nations will compete across 12 groups of four spread throughout the United States, Canada and Mexico. From the opening match on June 11 to the World Cup Final on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium, the tournament will feature a record 104 matches packed with drama, chaos, heartbreak and many unforgettable moments.
With so many matches and an expanded knockout stage, predicting how the bracket could unfold has become even more fascinating.
So what happens if the favorite wins every single match from start to finish?
Here is a full look at a projected World Cup bracket based entirely on betting favorites advancing through every round of the tournament. In other words, this is the “all chalk” bracket.
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How the Bracket Was Built
To simulate the 2026 World Cup bracket, every pick was based entirely on betting markets. Using DraftKings odds, we advanced the favorite at every stage of the tournament.
Group winners and runners-up were determined using odds to win each group along with odds to qualify from the group stage. The eight third-place teams that advanced were selected by comparing qualification odds across all 12 groups.
Because the 48-team format includes predetermined knockout pairings for third-place qualifiers, FIFA’s official tournament regulations were used to place every advancing team into the correct Round of 32 matchup.
From there, every knockout match was decided by which nation had shorter odds to win the World Cup outright.
Projected Round of 32 Matchups:
The knockout stage officially begins with the Round of 32, where every group winner and runner-up automatically advances.
The favorite to win each group was placed into the No. 1 position from that group, while the team with the second-best odds to win the group was slotted into the No. 2 position for their respective group.
To determine those final eight spots, we used the betting odds in the “to qualify from group” markets and selected the strongest remaining teams that were not projected to finish first or second in their groups.
Here’s how the projected Round of 32 would look if every group favorite advanced based on current DraftKings odds.
- Germany vs. Paraguay
- France vs. Sweden
- South Korea vs. Canada
- Netherlands vs. Morocco
- Colombia vs. Croatia
- Spain vs. Austria
- USA vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Belgium vs. Czechia
- Brazil vs. Japan
- Ecuador vs. Norway
- Mexico vs. Scotland
- England vs. Senegal
- Argentina vs. Uruguay
- Türkiye vs. Egypt
- Switzerland vs. Algeria
- Portugal vs. Ivory Coast
The left aspect of the bracket options a number of European powers, together with France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. In the meantime, the suitable aspect can be loaded with contenders akin to Brazil, England, Argentina and Portugal.
Notably, each host nations, the USA and Mexico, superior previous the Spherical of 32 on this projection, organising spots within the Spherical of 16 throughout a house World Cup.
Projected Spherical of 16 Matchups:
The “all chalk” bracket continues into the Spherical of 16, with the following spherical that includes a few of the match’s most anticipated matchups.
- Germany vs. France
- Canada vs. Netherlands
- Colombia vs. Spain
- USA vs. Belgium
- Brazil vs. Norway
- Mexico vs. England
- Argentina vs. Türkiye
- Switzerland vs. Portugal
This spherical could be headlined by an enormous showdown between Germany and France, pitting the 2014 World Cup champions in opposition to the 2018 World Cup champions.
In the meantime, Colombia, a nation many view as a potential darkish horse within the match, would face Spain in probably the most intriguing matchups of the spherical.
Sadly, that is the place the street involves an finish for each the USA and Mexico, as the 2 host nations draw troublesome Spherical of 16 matchups in opposition to Belgium and England.
On the suitable aspect of the bracket, Argentina and Portugal each proceed advancing, holding alive the potential of a blockbuster Lionel Messi vs. Cristiano Ronaldo showdown.
Quarterfinals
We’re now right down to the ultimate eight, with some unbelievable matchups happening.
- France vs. Netherlands
- Spain vs. Belgium
The left aspect of the bracket would function France vs. the Netherlands together with Spain vs. Belgium, creating two heavyweight European clashes with semifinal spots on the road.
- England vs. Brazil
- Argentina vs. Portugal
As is the case on this projection, if Argentina and Portugal each win their respective teams after which maintain enterprise in opposition to favorable opponents within the first two knockout rounds, they might meet in a dream quarterfinal matchup between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Given the construction of the bracket and the present betting odds, there’s a very lifelike path for this “matchup of a lifetime” to occur.
England vs. Brazil would additionally headline the spherical in what could be one other marquee matchup between two nations which have the third-best (+650) and fourth-best (+850) odds to win all of it, respectively.
Semifinals
- France vs. Spain
- England vs. Argentina
After which there have been 4.
As this projection reveals, if Spain and France each win their respective teams, they might land on the identical aspect of the bracket. That’s vastly important contemplating they at present maintain the 2 shortest odds to win the World Cup, with Spain at +475 and France at +500.
Due to the best way the bracket is structured, there’s a very lifelike likelihood the match’s two favorites might meet within the semifinals as an alternative of the World Cup Last, just like how Spain and France confronted off within the semifinal at UEFA Euro 2024.
On the opposite aspect, England and Argentina would sq. off in one other large matchup that includes two of the game’s largest world powers.
World Cup Last
If the bracket goes all chalk, we’d get a rematch of the 2024 Euro Last between Spain and England.
Spain received that match 2-1 after Mikel Oyarzabal scored the game-winning aim within the 86th minute.
This matchup would additionally make historical past, turning into the primary males’s FIFA World Cup Last that served as a rematch of the earlier European Championship Last.
The present odds for this actual finals matchup to occur is +1400, the shortest odds of any actual matchup.
