Balogun? Pepi? Predicting the USMNT’s 2026 World Cup strikers

For the previous two FIFA World Cup cycles, the beginning striker spot for the U.S. males’s nationwide workforce has been a seemingly unsolvable puzzle, with not one of the candidates capable of seize a agency maintain of the spot. It wasn’t at all times this fashion.

Eric Wynalda and Brian McBride led the U.S. line through the Nineteen Nineties and 2000s. Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey carried the flag via the 2014 World Cup and barely past, though it is price noting that Dempsey spent a big chunk of his worldwide profession in a midfield function. The identical was true for Landon Donovan.

Since then, the seek for a beginning central striker has taken on holy grail-like qualities.

The 2022 World Cup cycle by no means did reveal a ahead who might ship on a constant foundation. Jesús Ferreira, Jordan Pefok, Ricardo Pepi, Josh Sargent and Gyasi Zardes have been all given begins throughout World Cup qualifying. For a time, it appeared like Pepi would emerge, however he light towards the latter a part of the cycle — largely as a consequence of a scarcity of enjoying time at membership stage — and was crushed to the roster choice tape by Haji Wright. An damage to Sargent on the World Cup, mixed with ineffectiveness by Ferreira and Wright, meant that the U.S. did not get as a lot out of the place in Qatar as they might have hoped.

This cycle has been much more muddled. Pepi, Sargent and Wright stay in rivalry, joined by Folarin Balogun and Patrick Agyemang. And whereas Balogun has gained a little bit of daylight between himself and the opposite potentials due to a formidable efficiency in a current pleasant towards Japan, he hasn’t secured the spot simply but.

With the October window that includes friendlies towards Ecuador and Australia, this is the place issues stand within the race to put on the No. 9 for Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT at subsequent summer season’s World Cup, and a statistical comparable participant for the 5 in rivalry to begin up prime come June.

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Folarin Balogun | 24 | AS Monaco

When Balogun dedicated to the USMNT in Might of 2023 — he was additionally eligible to characterize England and Nigeria — he was considered the USMNT’s long-term reply to the striker place. Initially there was a payoff: he scored within the 2023 Concacaf Nations League last towards Canada, and was one of many few gamers to come back out of the 2024 Copa América with any credit score. However accidents, together with a recurring shoulder ailment that required surgical procedure in December 2024, prevented him from getting a vice-like grip on the place.

Balogun’s mobility permits him to get behind opposition defenses. The issue has been that the U.S. assault hasn’t at all times proved itself adept at discovering him in these positions. However Balogun’s motion has the additional benefit of pulling defenders out of place, the higher to create area for the likes of Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah or Alejandro Zendejas.

The Japan recreation in September showcased the complete repertoire of his expertise, and he even demonstrated he can play along with his again to aim and maintain the ball up if requested. Even within the loss to South Korea, the U.S. assault appeared much more dynamic as soon as Balogun entered the match instead within the 62nd minute.

The one doubts encompass his sturdiness, in addition to getting constant enjoying time at Monaco, the place the competitors for locations has been fierce. He has only one aim and one help in league play this season, protecting 332 minutes.

Statistical comparable: Nicolas Jackson. Balogun has proved to be a keen runner and ball provider with stable shot and aim creation. Previously three years, he has averaged 0.50 targets from 3.69 pictures per 90 minutes. Sadly, like Jackson, he has additionally proved to be a reasonably poor finisher — these 0.50 targets per 90 come from pictures price 0.70 xG per 90. — Invoice Connelly

Wright is the one U.S. heart ahead with a World Cup aim to his title. Granted, he did not appear to know a lot about his tally within the round-of-16 defeat to the Netherlands on the 2022 World Cup, however a aim is a aim.

Given the disdain Pochettino has for participant reputations, extra pertinent to Wright’s trigger is the blistering type he has been exhibiting within the English Championship this 12 months, the place his eight targets are tops within the league and have propelled Coventry to the highest of the desk.

Wright has some versatility to his recreation. His 6-foot-3 body permits him to be a drive within the air, however he is additionally fast sufficient to play on the wing, which he has performed every so often for Coventry and the USMNT. His means to smell out possibilities is spectacular as effectively. His tally from lower than 2 yards in final weekend’s 5-0 demolition of Sheffield Wednesday confirmed his means to be in the proper place on the proper time.

What’s holding Wright again? There have been instances over the last World Cup the place he appeared sluggish to react to attacking alternatives. Maybe the second obtained to him. Whereas that was virtually three years in the past, it is a picture that may stick within the reminiscence till he delivers on an even bigger stage.

Statistical comparable: Randal Kolo Muani. Wright is not fairly the passer that Kolo Muani may be, however he scores (0.56 targets per 90 minutes), and he actually pushes the ball. He has averaged 6.1 progressive carries per 90 up to now three years, drawing 1.42 fouls per 90 in that span. That creates a uncommon profile and makes Kolo Muani one of the best comp. — Connelly

Throughout final week’s convention name wherein he introduced the U.S. roster for the October window, Pochettino mentioned that Agyemang affords a unique profile to Balogun and Wright, one derived from his bodily presence — he is 6-foot-4 — and his aerial means. These traits have been on show in Derby County’s 1-1 draw with Southampton final weekend, when Agyemang towered over a Saints defender to go dwelling the Rams’ solely aim of the day.

Agyemang is a uncooked expertise, nevertheless, and he struggles at instances along with his contact and hold-up play. However he appears completely suited to attain an unsightly aim late in a match, if essential, and his passing has seen him earn two assists already in 307 minutes within the EFL Championship.

Agyemang’s possibilities of securing a World Cup roster spot are, like so many gamers, all the way down to well being and the numbers recreation Pochettino should play. If Pochettino solely opts to carry three forwards, and a participant like Pepi is wholesome, Agyemang could also be one of many last cuts. However his “completely different profile” could also be what will get him in, particularly if Pochettino opts for 4 strikers.

Statistical comparable: Olivier Giroud. Agyemang is superb within the air (47.5% aerial success price), and he is completely satisfied to attract plenty of contact (2.05 fouls per 90 suffered, 0.92 within the attacking third). That makes him awfully Giroud-like, as does high quality ending — he averages 0.51 targets from pictures price 0.40 xG, and 90% of his pictures have come from contained in the field — though his taking pictures totals aren’t enormous, and he isn’t concerned elsewhere on the pitch. — Connelly

Three years in the past, Pepi was the odd man out when it comes to the U.S. roster that went to Qatar. It proved a mistake, when the U.S. was left beginning Ferreira towards the Dutch. Now Pepi is aiming to be on the 2026 squad — that’s, if his physique will let him.

The 2025 calendar 12 months has seen Pepi wrestle along with his health. He sustained a knee damage within the UEFA Champions League recreation towards Liverpool final January that later required surgical procedure, forcing him to overlook final summer season’s Gold Cup. Pepi’s restoration since then has been stop-start; he was introduced alongside slowly by PSV, and seemed to be again after scoring twice towards NEC Nijmegen final month, however a current muscle damage has him again on the shelf. It is not considered critical, but it surely prevented him from participating on this camp.

Whereas Pepi has a number of spectacular attributes, his motion permits him to smell out alternatives and get on the top of passes that different forwards may miss. Mix this along with his link-up play and you’ve got a ahead able to contributing lots to the U.S. workforce. However time is operating out for Pepi to make an even bigger impression.

Statistical comparable: Lautaro Martínez. Greater than every other ahead from this checklist, Pepi will get himself concerned, simply as Martínez does. His offensive numbers are inflated by enjoying within the Eredivisie, however they’re nonetheless wonderful (0.74 targets and 1.36 possibilities created per 90 minutes), and he is proving to be a dependable finisher (these targets got here from pictures price 0.52 xG). He additionally reveals up in protection, averaging a stellar-for-a-forward 5.53 defensive interventions per 90. — Connelly

Not often has the distinction between a participant’s membership type and his worldwide type been as stark as it’s with Sargent. The O’Fallon, Missouri, native has hit double-digit targets in every of his previous three full seasons with the Canaries within the Championship, and he is effectively on his means this 12 months with 5 targets in 9 league matches. It makes Sargent’s barren spell with the USMNT — he hasn’t scored for the U.S. in his previous 17 worldwide appearances, courting again to November 2019 — all of the extra confounding.

Maybe his streak is all the way down to the truth that whereas Sargent does loads of issues effectively — be it his motion, his link-up play and sure, his ending, too — there is not one side of his recreation that appears elite sufficient to assist him be a difference-maker at a World Cup.

Pochettino appears to have seen, too. Even with Pepi injured this window, there wasn’t room for Sargent among the many forwards on the roster. He does have World Cup expertise, and that counts for one thing, but it surely might not be sufficient.

Statistical comparable: Moise Kean. Sargent is essentially the most statistically nondescript of the American forwards on this checklist, however like Kean, he is a keen presser (4.09 defensive interventions per 90 minutes because the begin of 2024-25) and above-average finisher (0.56 targets per 90 from pictures price 0.48 xG). His shot totals are at all times decrease than you would like, although (2.43 pictures per 90), and he would not stand out as a passer. — Connelly

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Balogun, Pepi, Wright and Agyemang look to be in place to make the World Cup squad, in that order. 4 forwards may appear to be one too many, however these 4 all have completely different profiles that may assist the USMNT at numerous instances. Flexibility is significant in a match just like the World Cup.

By way of who begins, Balogun has the within observe in the intervening time, however that scenario can change shortly. At this stage, it appears to be like like the one means Sargent makes it again to the World Cup is that if others get injured or endure a big drop in type.