Newcastle United have 4 video games to play within the Premier League this season, however relegation to the Championship and qualification for subsequent season’s Champions League are nonetheless prospects for Eddie Howe’s group.
Sure, that is proper: Subsequent season’s fixture record for the Magpies might contain a Championship sport towards Lincoln Metropolis or a Champions League conflict with Actual Madrid.
It appears a ridiculous state of affairs — Newcastle are in 14th place forward of Saturday’s assembly with sixth-place Brighton & Hove Albion at St James’ Park, and so they sit 12 factors above the relegation and eight behind Fabian Hürzeler’s Seagulls, so midtable obscurity would look like the one factor that Howe and his gamers will obtain this season.
However the Premier League confirmed this week that, within the occasion of Aston Villa ending fifth and likewise profitable the Europa League, the European Efficiency Spot — a further Champions League place awarded to the Premier League by advantage of ending prime of UEFA’s co-efficient desk — would then go to the group in sixth place.
With eight factors separating Brighton in sixth and Newcastle in 14th, as many as 9 groups have now been provided the prospect of an surprising route into the Champions League. Leeds United (fifteenth, 40 pts) and Nottingham Forest (sixteenth, 39 pts) might additionally nonetheless end in sixth place, however with each side nonetheless locked in a relegation battle, it appears unlikely that both might bridge such an enormous hole and overcome so many sides forward of them to seal a top-six end. However from Newcastle upward, groups together with Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Everton, Fulham, Brentford, Chelsea, AFC Bournemouth and Brighton all have an opportunity — starting from unlikely to robust — of claiming sixth spot.
This all will depend on Villa, nevertheless, and each eventualities of a fifth-place end and Europa League triumph coming to fruition. Unai Emery’s group are sitting in fifth proper now, simply three factors behind third-place Manchester United. In the event that they end third or fourth, sixth place won’t safe Champions League qualification. It is because fifth place has turn out to be the spot providing the back-door route into the Champions League from the Premier League.
If Man United or Liverpool end fifth, they are going to declare that European Efficiency Spot as a result of, having missed out on the highest 4, they won’t have already secured a Champions League berth. But when Villa win the Europa League — they face Forest within the semifinal first-leg on the Metropolis Floor on Thursday — that will safe their Champions League passport and subsequently render them ineligible for the European Efficiency Spot in the event that they end fifth. In order a consequence, that bonus Champions League spot would drop to sixth spot, and the Premier League would lose the Europa League place assigned to sixth place, with UEFA transferring that to a different nationwide league.
Newcastle’s scenario is most intriguing contemplating their current stoop and the doubts which are rising over Howe’s future as supervisor. Having misplaced 4 straight league video games, Newcastle have dropped to the fringes of the relegation battle and are nonetheless not mathematically protected, however each relegation and a surge to sixth spot would look like nicely past Howe and his gamers.
Sunderland, two locations and 4 factors forward of Newcastle, are solely 4 factors behind Brighton, so supervisor Regis Le Bris might but obtain the exceptional of following up final season’s promotion from the Championship with a Champions League spot.
However the almost definitely end result, if sixth turns into a Champions League qualification berth, is that we see a six-team battle for that place over the ultimate month of the season with simply three factors separating Brighton and Everton in eleventh.
Brighton, Bournemouth (seventh) and Brentford (ninth) are extensively considered a number of the best-run golf equipment in Europe, with every persistently difficult the larger golf equipment due to their good recruitment, each when it comes to gamers and coaches. Qualifying for Europe could be a big achievement for all three — solely Brighton have managed that earlier than — however a spot within the Champions League could be a totally surprising bonus.
The identical would apply to Fulham (tenth), who nonetheless have fond recollections of reaching the 2009-10 Europa League last towards Atlético Madrid, and Everton, who’ve capitalised on their transfer from Goodison Park to the Hill Dickinson Stadium this season by difficult for a top-10 end below boss David Moyes.
But when the potential for a Champions League by way of sixth place might turn out to be a season-saver for Chelsea, which dropped to eighth spot with their 3-0 defeat at Brighton final week — a consequence that led to Liam Rosenior’s exit as head coach after simply 106 days in cost.
Chelsea’s run of 5 successive league defeats with out scoring below Rosenior noticed them drop out of the highest 5 and seemingly finish all hope of a Champions League spot as a result of group falling 10 factors behind Villa. However having responded to Rosenior’s dismissal with an FA Cup semifinal win towards Leeds final weekend, which booked a conflict with Manchester Metropolis in subsequent month’s last, maybe issues are beginning to lookup for Chelsea. And nothing would affirm that greater than sneaking into the Champions League on the again of one other English group profitable a European trophy.
However that prospect has come into play for Chelsea and nearly half of the Premier League, so all of it will depend on Villa now.
